Canada’s Express Entry system has been a game-changer for skilled workers looking to obtain permanent residency, with the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) being one of its most popular pathways. However, recent trends indicate that the future of CEC draws may not be as promising as it once was. With increasing competition and shifting immigration policies, many prospective immigrants are left wondering: What does the future hold for CEC draws?
CRS Trends: A Historical Perspective
Analyzing the past few years reveals a consistent increase in CRS cutoffs, particularly for CEC draws:
Year | CEC Lowest CRS Cutoff | Average CRS Score |
2021 | 75 | 357 |
2022 | No CEC draws | N/A |
2023 | 486 | 500+ |
2024 | 522 | 530+ |
In 2021, a notable CEC draw on February 13 issued 27,332 ITAs with a record-low cutoff score of 75, aiming to transition temporary residents to permanent status during the pandemic. However, by 2024, CRS cutoffs had risen significantly, with scores consistently exceeding 520.
Recent draws in 2025 continue this trend:
Draw Date | Invitations Issued | CRS Score |
Feb 5, 2025 | 4000 | 521 |
Jan 23, 2025 | 4,000 | 527 |
Jan 10, 2025 | 1,350 | 542 |
This trend shows that CRS scores for CEC draws are remaining high, making it increasingly difficult for candidates to receive an invitation. If this pattern continues, we may see future draws requiring scores in the 520-550 range.
Why Are CRS Scores So High?
There are several factors contributing to the rising CRS cutoffs for CEC draws:
Increased Competition: With more skilled workers entering the Express Entry pool, higher CRS scores are needed to stay competitive.
Reduced Immigration Targets: The Canadian government’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan has lowered the number of permanent residents Canada will accept in the coming years. The targets are set at:
395,000 in 2025
380,000 in 2026
365,000 in 2027
Focus on Other Immigration Categories: Canada is increasingly prioritizing Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) and category-based draws, which means fewer invitations for CEC applicants.
Key Predictions and Emerging Trends
As we look ahead to 2025, several key trends and predictions are shaping the landscape of Canada's Express Entry system:
1. Persistent High CRS Cut-Offs
The Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) cut-off scores are expected to remain elevated throughout 2025. This is largely due to the substantial number of temporary residents in Canada, which has created a backlog, keeping CRS scores above 510 for Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws.
2. Emphasis on French-Speaking Candidates
Canada is prioritizing French-speaking immigrants, with plans to conduct regular French-language draws. It's anticipated that there will be approximately one French-language draw per month, issuing between 2,000 to 3,500 invitations each time. This focus aligns with Canada's commitment to increasing francophone immigration outside Quebec.
3. Targeted Draws for Specific Occupations
The Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has designated certain occupations as priorities for Express Entry draws in 2025, including:
Healthcare occupations
Trades occupations
French-language proficiency
While 2024 saw limited draws for healthcare and trades occupations, IRCC may increase the frequency of these targeted draws in 2025 to address labor market needs.
4. Potential Removal of Job Offer Points
There is speculation that IRCC may eliminate points awarded for job offers in 2025. This move aims to level the playing field for candidates who meet permanent residency requirements but lack a job offer, and to address concerns over the misuse of Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs). If implemented, this change could lower overall CRS scores, benefiting candidates without job offers.
5. Continued High Competition
Despite potential policy adjustments, the high number of temporary residents and increased interest in Canadian immigration suggest that competition will remain stiff. Candidates are advised to strengthen their profiles by improving language proficiency, gaining additional work experience, and exploring Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) to enhance their chances of receiving an Invitation to Apply (ITA).
6. More Emphasis on PNPs Instead of Express Entry
Some provinces (Ontario, BC, Alberta) have requested higher PNP allocations in 2025. This means Express Entry might take a backseat, with more focus on Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) as the preferred immigration route.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for CEC Candidates
The future of CEC draws is becoming more challenging, with fewer invitations and higher CRS cutoffs. However, this doesn’t mean you should give up! By improving your CRS score, exploring PNPs, and staying informed about Canada’s immigration trends, you can still achieve your goal of permanent residency.
Stay Ahead of the Curve!
If you’re looking for expert advice on boosting your CRS score or exploring alternative pathways, book a consultation with our team today. Don’t wait—start preparing now to maximize your chances in future draws!
Email: info@ansariimmigration.com
Consultation: Reserve here
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